In the latest installment of The Market Report, a revered Cointelegraph analyst and writer, Marcel Pechman, delves into the fascinating realm of Bitcoin’s impending pre-halving rally. As this critical market event looms on the horizon, Pechman shares insightful observations and expert projections on the potential surge in Bitcoin’s value, while also exploring the tantalizing possibility of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval. Join us on this compelling journey into the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency.
Analysis: Standard Chartered Bank’s Bold Projection:
During the captivating episode, Pechman unravels the intriguing analysis by Standard Chartered bank, which boldly predicts a staggering Bitcoin price of $120,000, attributing this surge to the anticipated halving impact. The report suggests that an upsurge in miner profitability before the halving would consequentially “reduce the net BTC supply.” However, Pechman approaches this thesis with caution, considering the continued increase in mining difficulty and the recent news of Riot Platform’s investment in new ASIC equipment. In the past year alone, mining difficulty has surged by an impressive 73%, outpacing the 58% increase in Bitcoin’s price.
Doubts on the Optimistic $50,000 Year-End Projection:
Pechman expresses skepticism regarding the optimistic projection of Bitcoin reaching $50,000 by year-end, primarily due to the low odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF gaining approval within this timeframe. However, if the ETF manages to secure regulatory approval in the next six months, an estimated inflow of $5 billion could potentially catapult Bitcoin’s price beyond $70,000.
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Expanding Possibilities: 2024 Outlook and Beyond:
Looking ahead to 2024, Pechman increases the odds of spot Bitcoin ETF approval to a respectable 30%. Meanwhile, Bloomberg analysts hold even higher expectations with a 50% likelihood of approval. With mammoth players like BlackRock and Fidelity on the horizon, Pechman opines that an influx of $10 billion in the first few months following the ETF launch is conceivable, thereby suggesting that Standard Chartered’s $120,000 projection may lean toward the conservative side.
The Implications of ETF Approval on the Pre-Halving Rally:
Pechman proposes that the expectation of ETF approval could significantly impact the duration and magnitude of the pre-halving rally. Investors are faced with the decision of whether to hold their positions or dump their assets before the event occurs. Pechman advises against succumbing to the fear of missing out (FOMO). If one has missed the optimal entry point, traders should either exercise dollar-cost averaging or exercise patience by waiting for the opportune moment.
Insights from Glassnode On-Chain Analysis:
Finally, Pechman explores the profound insights from the latest Glassnode on-chain analysis report, which centers on re-accumulation at the $30,000 mark. Drawing parallels with traditional markets, Pechman highlights the widespread phenomenon of “return to mean” when investors lack the conviction necessary to drive prices. In such cases, previous two-year or three-year average levels serve as reference points.
The episode concludes by inviting viewers to delve deeper into Pechman’s strategic recommendations for navigating the Bitcoin halving and the potential ramifications of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval. Tune in to The Market Report, exclusively available on the new Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel, to gain invaluable insights and make informed investment decisions in the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency.
