In the early hours of Monday, tragedy struck Derna as a cataclysmic flood surged through the city while its residents slept. Two dams burst in succession, unleashing a colossal wave of water that descended from the mountains, engulfing entire neighborhoods and claiming thousands of lives as they were swept into the sea.
Doctors Without Borders (Medecins sans frontieres) released a statement on Thursday, revising earlier estimates, revealing that at least 5,000 lives have been lost in Libya due to this week’s devastating floods. The calamity has cast a long shadow over Derna, with authorities reporting that at least 10,000 residents are still missing. It’s important to note that CNN cannot independently verify these figures.
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) painted a grim picture of the aftermath, describing how buildings, homes, and infrastructure were “wiped out” by a staggering 7-meter (23-foot) wave that crashed into the city. Shockingly, dead bodies are now washing back up on the shore, underscoring the magnitude of the catastrophe.
However, as the world grapples with the scale of the disaster, questions arise regarding why a storm, which also affected Greece and other countries, wreaked so much more havoc in Libya.
Experts contend that beyond the sheer force of the storm itself, Libya’s tragic ordeal was exacerbated by a deadly convergence of factors. These include aging and crumbling infrastructure, inadequate early warnings, and the ominous shadow of the accelerating climate crisis.
A Furious Storm
The deluge that engulfed Libya on Sunday was the result of a meteorological phenomenon known as Storm Daniel. After causing severe flooding and claiming more than 20 lives in Greece, Turkey, and Bulgaria, the storm transformed into a “medicane” over the Mediterranean. Medicane, short for Mediterranean hurricane, shares characteristics with hurricanes and typhoons.
As it traversed the unusually warm waters of the Mediterranean, the medicane gained strength before unloading torrential rain upon Libya. The city of Al-Bayda, west of Derna, bore the brunt of the storm, enduring over 16 inches (414 mm) of rainfall in a mere 24 hours, marking a new record.
While definitively attributing the storm to the climate crisis remains a complex endeavor, scientists emphasize that climate change undeniably intensifies extreme weather events like storms. Warmer oceans provide the energy for storms to grow, and a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, resulting in more intense rainfall.
Hannah Cloke, a professor of hydrology at the University of Reading, asserts that storms are becoming increasingly ferocious due to climate change.
A History of Vulnerability
Derna’s susceptibility to flooding has historical roots, with at least five deadly floods recorded since 1942, the most recent being in 2011, according to research from Libya’s Sebha University. The two dams that ruptured this week were constructed more than half a century ago, between 1973 and 1977, by a Yugoslav construction company. The Derna dam, standing at 75 meters (246 feet) with a storage capacity of 18 million cubic meters (4.76 billion gallons), and the Mansour dam, 45 meters (148 feet) high with a capacity of 1.5 million cubic meters (396 million gallons), had not undergone maintenance since 2002.
The warning signs about these dams were evident. The Sebha University research warned of the “high potential for flood risk” associated with the Derna dams and stressed the need for periodic maintenance to avert “catastrophic” flooding. The report further emphasized the lack of adequate vegetation in the surrounding area to prevent soil erosion, calling for heightened awareness among local residents regarding the dangers of flooding.
Liz Stephens, a Professor in Climate Risks and Resilience at the University of Reading, pointed to serious questions about the dam’s design standards and whether they adequately accounted for the risk of extremely heavy rainfall events.
Insufficient Early Warnings
The absence of effective early warnings compounded the tragedy in Derna, according to Petteri Taalas, head of the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Taalas lamented that if a functioning meteorological service had been in place, warnings could have been issued, and emergency management could have facilitated evacuations, potentially averting the majority of human casualties. However, political instability in Libya hindered WMO’s efforts to collaborate with the government to improve these systems.
Even robust early warning systems, while invaluable, cannot guarantee the preservation of all lives during dam failures, as they can be challenging to predict and unleash swift and devastating floods.
The risk posed by climate-fueled extreme weather to global infrastructure, not limited to dams but extending to buildings and water supplies, is a critical concern. Hannah Cloke stressed that the world is inadequately prepared for the increasing frequency of extreme events exacerbated by climate change.
As the world mourns the lives lost in Libya’s tragic floods, the incident serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for infrastructure resilience, improved early warning systems, and decisive action in confronting the climate crisis.
